TradeTree

Every trade has a ripple.

Trace every blockbuster trade through history to find the ultimate winners.

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How the algorithm thinks

Trades aren't won the day they happen.

They're won across years of cap space, draft lineage, and surplus production. TradeTree models all of it — branching every secondary trade until the asset finally settles.

Trade Value Delta

Every asset on each side is priced. The Delta is the net difference between what each franchise gave up and what it received, normalized to today's dollars.

Economic Surplus Value

Surplus Value (SV) = Market Value − Actual Contract Cost. A star on a rookie deal generates massive positive SV; an albatross veteran contract grades negative.

Timeframe Decay

Short tenures are penalized. We apply a decay factor so a 12-game stint can't pose as a multi-year track record — protecting against small-sample noise.

Winners & Losers

Each side gets graded across cap impact, on-field production (WAR / AV / WS), and downstream pick yield from any branching trades.

Core formula
SV = MarketValue ContractCost
TradeDelta = Σ SV(received) − Σ SV(sent) · decay(t)

Data sources mocked from SportsDataIO (transactions), Sports Reference / Stathead (advanced metrics: WAR, PER, AV), and Pro Sports Transactions (multi-team and cash considerations).